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Dem odds on retaking House in 2018? Good luck with that

GOP redistricting, among other factors, are working against Democrats in 2018 and beyond

(National SentinelCongress: Unhinged Democrats who are still suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome believe they have a serious shot at retaking the House in next year’s mid-term elections, because, you know, the whole country hates the president like they do.

Except that isn’t the case. And political odds-makers know that, which is why they don’t see much chance of a Dem takeover of the House likely next year or anytime soon.

As reported by Breitbart News:

The establishment media and the leadership of the Democratic Party are building up expectations among the far left base that the Democrats have a strong chance of gaining the 24 seats they need to take back control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections.

But a look at the numbers suggests that dream may be a long shot.

Ed Kilgore succinctly articulated that dream in New York Magazine recently.

“A new poll shows the kind of numbers that if they become common could definitely portend not just a ‘wave’ but a veritable tsunami. Quinnipiac’s latest national poll mainly drew attention for showing some really terrible assessments of Donald Trump. But its congressional generic ballot was a shocker,” Kilgore wrote last week.

“By a 54 – 38 percent margin, American voters want the Democratic Party to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives. This is the widest margin ever measured for this question in a Quinnipiac University poll, exceeding a 5 percentage point margin for Republicans in 2013,” the pollsters wrote of their national poll conducted earlier this month.

Oh, really?

Michael Barone, writing in a Washington Examiner article back in February, expressed the more objective view that the 24 seats the Democrats need to gain in the House to obtain a majority in 2018 is “not an impossible number.” He noted it is ” less than the net gains made by Democrats in 2006 and 2008 and by Republicans in 2010, but still a formidable number in an era that remains, though to a slightly lesser extent, a time of straight-ticket voting.”

To be sure, 2018 is a long way off and the outcome of those races – many of which are taking place in solid red districts, will likely be decided by events that have yet to occur.

“The way district lines are currently drawn benefits Republicans by distributing GOP voters more efficiently than Democratic voters. So, all else being equal, we would probably expect Republicans to win more seats than Trump’s approval rating alone indicates,” Harrey Enten notes at FiveThirtyEight.com.

Plus, there is this: Democrats have been steadily losing elections all over the country, having shed some 1,100 seats on the local, state and federal level since Barack Obama was first elected president.

And if Trump manages to grow the economy and boost jobs and opportunity, a process he and the GOP-controlled Congress have already begun by slashing red tape and curbing regulations, it’s hard to imagine Democrats, with their far-Left socialist ideals for the economy and big government, getting the upper hand on Election Day 2018.

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