(National Sentinel) Stock Market Blues: Despite President Donald J. Trump’s tax reform plan to slash the top corporate tax rate from 39 percent to 25 percent, one market analyst says it’s a “pipe dream” that will eventually lead to a 40-70 percent drop in the value of the stock market.
David Stockman, the Reagan administration’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, continued over the weekend to stick to a dire prediction he has made previously: the 8 1/2 year-old rally is in serious danger of tanking.
“There is a correction every seven to eight years, and they tend to be anywhere from 40 to 70 percent,” Stockman said recently on CNBC‘s “Futures Now.” “If you have to work for a living, get out of the casino because it’s a dangerous place.”
As the network notes, however:
He’s made similar calls, but they haven’t materialized. In June, Stockman told CNBC the S&P 500 could easily fall to 1,600, which at the time represented a 34 percent drop. This week, the index was trading at record levels above 2,500.
Stockman puts a big portion of the blame on the Federal Reserve, and its ultra-loose monetary policy.
“This is a bubble created by the Fed,” he said. “We’re heading for higher yields. We are heading for a huge reset of pricing in the risk markets that’s been based on ultra-cheap yields that the central banks of the world created that are now going to go away because they’re telling you that they’re done.”
At the height of the 2007-2009 Great Recession, the S&P 500 Index plummeted as much as 58 percent. It dropped to that level in March 2009.
“This market at 24 times GAAP earnings, 21 times operating earnings, 100 months into a business expansion with the kind of troubles you have in Washington, central banks [are] going to the sidelines,” he said. “There’s very little reward, and there’s a heck of a lot of risk.”
He also said Wall Street was delusional for thinking that Trump’s business-friendly tax cut plan would stem the losses.
“This is a fiscal disaster that when they [Wall Street] begin to look at it, they’ll see it’s not even remotely paid for. This bill will go down for the count,” said Stockman.
Others argue that the bill shouldn’t have to be “paid for” — that any loss in tax revenue should be offset with drastic reductions in government spending.
“There is this notion that government can and should never do with less,” said talk show host Mark Levin last week, in discussing Trump’s plan on his program. “That’s false.”
In an event, Stockman said White House economic advisor Gary Cohn and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin “totally failed to provide any detail, any leadership, any plan. Both of them ought to be fired because they let down the president in a major, major way.”
As for the catalyst for the market plunge, Stockman said that is the big unknown.
“You get a black swan in the old days, or maybe you get an orange swan now, the one in the Oval Office who can’t seem to stop tweeting and distracting the whole process from accomplishing anything,” Stockman said of Trump.
All the market doom-and-gloomers have to do to be “right” is to keep making these kinds of predictions, year after year. Then, when a market correct does happen, they can point to their “genius” and say, “See? See? I’ve been saying this all along.”
True genius is not only making the right prediction, but also predicting the correct trigger. So far, Stockman isn’t offering any.
As for the president’s tax plan, small business owners — the drivers of new hiring — love it.
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