(National Sentinel) Red Wave: All last month political guru Nate Silver predicted that Democrats had an 80-85 percent chance of retaking the House at least, but now that the midterm elections are just a day away, he seems to be hedging his bet.
“This last set of Upshot/Siena polls has been pretty good for D’s. They’re polling in 11 districts now, and on average, the polls are coming in about 2-3 points better for Dems than the 538 Classic forecast from before the poll was entered,” the editor of FiveThirtyEight.com tweeted on Saturday.
However, he added: “I’m not at all convinced there’s movement nationally toward Democrats—the generic ballot has been very flat. But, they may be closing well in swing districts because of their big spending advantage, which ought to be a bit scary for R’s.”
I'm not at all convinced there's movement nationally toward Democrats—the generic ballot has been very flat. But, they may be closing well in swing districts because of their big spending advantage, which ought to be a bit scary for R's.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2018
“Not at all convinced….?”
But what about that blue wave? What happened to ’85 percent chance’ the House falls to Dems?
We don’t know what tomorrow brings but we do know this:
— POTUS Trump continues to draw massive crowds to rallies he is holding for GOP candidates;
— Early voting reportedly favors Republicans;
— Early turnout is at historic levels;
— These midterms ‘feel’ like a presidential election;
— GOP enthusiasm is high (as evidenced by the president’s massive crowds).
Is Silver hedging his prediction?
Hedging Hedging Hedging https://t.co/9UeObyoDS9
— Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) November 4, 2018
Just remember, the dishonest “mainstream media” is going to try to suppress GOP voter turnout with early predictions and other ‘reporting’ tricks to make it appear as though Democratic candidates have won when they haven’t.
Don’t pay any attention to any of that. Go vote.
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