By Jon Dougherty
(NationalSentinel) President Donald Trump has confided in advisers that he believes last week’s stock market dive, which triggered a flurry of reporting and speculation that a recession was possible in the coming weeks or months, was part of a plot to tank his chances for reelection next year.
According to The New York Times, the president, in conversations that were meant to stay private, told aides and allies that Democrats and other #NeverTrump opponents are attempting to rob him of one of his key campaign strengths heading into the campaign: The soaring economy he and Republicans created with a combination of pro-growth policies and tax reform.
Upset by news reporting claiming the bottom was getting ready to fall out of the U.S. economy despite performance numbers and statistics that say just the opposite, President Trump has claimed privately that “forces that do not what him to win” have been purposely exaggerating the so-called damage being done by his escalating trade war with China, the Times noted.
Just last week, Trump blasted critics over economic news and data he said was pointedly false, claiming that “the Fake News Media is doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think it will be bad for me and my re-election.”
On Sunday, the president praised the strength of the U.S. economy. In remarks to reporters, he noted that the U.S. economy was nearly alone in the world in terms of growth and was outperforming other top economies around the globe.
“The rest of the world, if you look at Germany, if you look at European Union; frankly, look at the UK — I mean, look at a lot of countries — they’re not doing well,” he said.
“China is doing poorly,” he added. “Parts of Asia are doing poorly. We are doing better than any country, or even area, anywhere in the world.”
Our economy is the best in the world, by far. Lowest unemployment ever within almost all categories. Poised for big growth after trade deals are completed. Import prices down, China eating Tariffs. Helping targeted Farmers from big Tariff money coming in. Great future for USA!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 18, 2019
News reports last week focused on an inversion of the bond curve, which many analysts claim is a sure sign of economic downturn ahead.
But according to a wealth of other data and reporting, the president’s economy is indeed performing well.
A year ago, the media were talking up the Trump economy, as The National Sentinel reported:
Begrudgingly, even the anti-POTUS “mainstream” media is now having to report all of the good things, economically speaking, that are coming from deregulation policies and tax reform implemented by President Donald Trump and the GOP Congress.
What’s more, they are having to report that their policies and reforms are having a real impact on real people, especially those Americans who have been hard-hit by the globalist policies of the past three decades.
“Blue-collar jobs are growing at their fastest rate in more than 30 years, helping fuel a hiring boom in many small towns and rural areas that are strong supporters of President Trump ahead of November’s mid-term elections,” reported the Washington Post, under the headline “Under Trump, the jobs boom has finally reached blue-collar workers. Will it last?”
The New York Times is also on the job growth bandwagon. The paper noted that Republicans’ and the president’s pro-growth agenda is reaching people far beyond the blue Democrat-controlled urban areas along both coasts.
What’s more, the paper noted that employers and investors are going to have to start ponying up more money for workers because there is a growing shortage:
The headlines for the August job numbers released this morning are nothing but good. Employers added a robust 201,000 jobs, the unemployment rate remained at the rock-bottom level of 3.9 percent, and wages grew the fastest they have in nine years.
There’s no doubt that this is the best economy in quite a long time for American workers, who by a wide range of measures can find a job more easily than they have in a decade …
Earlier this month we noted:
— Payrolls rose by just 164,000, but we’re at 3.7 percent unemployment, which is considered full employment by any measure — so when most everyone looking for a job has a job, growth isn’t going to be gangbusters.
— Average hourly earnings are also increasing, up 3.2 percent from a year ago this month.
— Manufacturers/factories added 16,000 jobs, the most since January. And recall President Obama once told Americans, gloomily, those jobs are never coming back (not without someone waiving “a magic wand”).
— Goods producers including construction and mining companies added 15,000 jobs, which is less than half the five-year average…but…we’re at 3.7 percent unemployment so again, job growth isn’t going to be gangbusters when 99.9 percent of the population that wants to work/can work is working.
As for China, there is every indication that Beijing is getting hurt far more than the United States. Milton Ezrati, chief economist for Vested, the New York-based communications firm argued earlier this month:
Beijing can no longer play the tit-for-tat tariff game with which it once engaged the Trump White House. And because the devaluation has raised the risk of capital flight from China (and with it, longer-term economic difficulties), the currency move also hints at desperation to find immediate relief from the economic pain that the tariffs are inflicting.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the raft of bad economic news for China that likely explains why Beijing was so quick to end its currency manipulation a week ago after the president warned of further trade consequences:
The jobless rate in Chinese cities returned in July to its highest level since regular reporting on the data began, as employers turned cautious. Other key economic readings for the month, including factory production, consumption and property investment, came in much lower than expected.
While China earlier reported a surprise jump in exports in July, economists say the more-than-yearlong trade conflict with the U.S. has dented market confidence, forcing manufacturers to scale back production and investment, and prompting consumers to tighten purse strings.
Unemployment in China’s urban centers is far higher than it is in the United States, and it is rising: 5.3 percent, compared to the national unemployment rate in the U.S. under the Trump administration’s economic policies of 3.7 percent, a level most economists believe represents full employment.
China’s manufacturing sector alone, the WSJ noted, has shed more than 5 million jobs this year, with anywhere from 1.8-1.9 million of them – nearly 40 percent — due to the ongoing trade war with the U.S.
Without question, a tanking economy would dramatically harm the president’s reelection chances. And we already know there are some on the Left who are hoping and praying for one, as noted in recent weeks by HBO’s “Real Time” host Bill Maher.
Also, given what the Deep State and #NeverTrump crowd have tried to do to this president so far, it isn’t beyond the realm of sanity to believe there are forces out there who would orchestrate an economic downturn just to see Trump lose next year.
Not everyone on the Left is on board, though. The Nation noted in a piece on Friday that we shouldn’t be rooting for a recession because it would only add to social strife and misery.
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