By Jon Dougherty
(NationalSentinel) The vast majority of economists polled this week said they don’t believe the United States is headed for a recession, despite the mainstream media reporting to the contrary.
Time magazine published the results of a survey on Monday in which the headline stated that “34 percent” of economist respondents believe a recession is coming. But the headline could just as easily have — and should have — read “most economists say no recession is in sight.”
The site noted:
Thirty-four percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report being released Monday, said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That’s up from 25% in a survey taken in February. Only 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while 38% predict that it will occur in 2020.
That means fully 66 percent, or roughly two-thirds of those surveyed, don’t see a recession coming.
The premise that the U.S. is headed for an economic downturn comes amid an “inversion curve” on the bond market, which many economists say indicates a recession may be looming. But many other economists say that isn’t an indicator of recession.
Declining trade with China, the world’s second-largest economy, has also sparked ‘recession fears’ reporting.
But on both counts, economic numbers for the United States are good, and President Donald Trump has attempted to assure Americans of that fact.
For his part, the president believes there is a media-and-Democrat-driven agenda to ‘talk down’ the economy ahead of the 2020 election because they believe that’s the only way to defeat him.
Just last week, Trump blasted critics over economic news and data he said was pointedly false, claiming that “the Fake News Media is doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think it will be bad for me and my re-election.”
On Sunday, the president praised the strength of the U.S. economy. In remarks to reporters, he noted that the U.S. economy was nearly alone in the world in terms of growth and was outperforming other top economies around the globe.
“The rest of the world, if you look at Germany, if you look at European Union; frankly, look at the UK — I mean, look at a lot of countries — they’re not doing well,” he said.
“China is doing poorly,” he added. “Parts of Asia are doing poorly. We are doing better than any country, or even area, anywhere in the world.”
Our economy is the best in the world, by far. Lowest unemployment ever within almost all categories. Poised for big growth after trade deals are completed. Import prices down, China eating Tariffs. Helping targeted Farmers from big Tariff money coming in. Great future for USA!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 18, 2019
Historically, according to GOP strategist and former 2016 presidential campaign spokesman for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) Ron Nehring, writing in The Hill Tuesday noted that in times of poor economic performance, voters shun Republican presidential candidates in favor of Democrats.
Ronald Reagan defeated one-termer Jimmy Carter in 1980 because of high unemployment, Nehring notes. But George H. W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton in 1992 when the economy slowed, despite having a 91 percent approval rating a year earlier following the successful prosecution of the first Gulf War, he pointed out.
Then, GOP-lite nominee McCain lost to Barack Obama in 2008 when the financial crisis was first beginning to hit.
“As the global economy slows and the direction of the U.S. economy is less certain, Republicans must write a new playbook for how to hold the White House in a challenging economic climate — something that has not happened in four decades,” Nehring said.
All of which helps explain why the anti-Trump media is working so hard to ‘convince’ as many Americans as possible to disbelief their eyes (and wallets) and believe that things really aren’t so hot, economically, after all.
With historically low unemployment across all races and demographics, China being negatively affected due to the trade war, and the president’s high economic performance numbers, the only way Democrats have a shot next year is to tank the economy, regardless of who it hurts.
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