By Jon Dougherty
(NationalSentinel) A new analysis has found that hate crimes” during the 2016 presidential campaign cycle were more prevalent at events for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton than they were for GOP nominee Donald Trump.
An earlier study claimed that hate crimes increased 226 percent at events hosted by Trump during the previous presidential campaign cycle. But that study failed to “account for the fact that political campaigns prefer to host rallies in populous areas, which already experience more hate crimes,” The Daily Wire noted.
That said, the earlier study did not account for whether or not similar crimes occurred during Clinton rallies.
But the new analysis by two Ph.D. students from Harvard University found that “Clinton rallies contribute to an even greater increase in hate crimes incidents than Trump rallies” (emphasis in the original).
In March, researchers from the University of North Texas and Texas A&M produced the study showing a significant increase in hate crimes in counties where Trump campaign events were hosted.
But that study was actually debunked in late August by Reason’s Robby Soave. Politifact earlier that month rated a tweet from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) using the statistic as “Half True,” but as Politifact often does for Democrats and Leftists, the site defended the stat anyway. (Related: WaPo blames $2.6 million white supremacist rally cost solely on two dozen racists while OMITTING Antifa-linked destruction)
Soave noted the Texas study did not, as Democrats claimed, show that candidate Trump caused an increase in hate crimes, but instead that “counties that hosted Trump rallies experienced 3.26 times as many incidents as other counties, a 226 percent difference.”
Soave also said that the underlying data was limited to anti-Semitism. The data came from an Anti-Defamation League report, a group that is no fan of the president, but the incidents include many that aren’t even actual hate crimes.
“A great many incidents on the ADL’s list are schoolyard bullying, for example,” Soave wrote. “According to this study, Trump’s political rallies are correlated with a significant spike in these kinds of incidents, but that’s not as strong a finding as the headlines suggest.”
The Harvard researchers, meanwhile, recreated the original study to discover similar findings at Trump rallies, but also then applied the same formula to Clinton’s rallies. But that doesn’t mean that Clinton should be accused of causing even more violence than the then-GOP contender:
Both of these results rely on comparing counties with rallies to other counties without them. This produces a glaring problem. Politicians tend to hold political rallies near where large numbers of people live. And in places with more people, the raw number of crimes is generally mechanically higher. Simply put, no one should be surprised that Orange County, California (population 3.19 million) was home to both more reported hate incidents (5) and Trump rallies (2) than Orange County, Indiana (population 19,840, which had zero of each).
The Harvard students took their research even further. Unlike the first study out of Texas, they added “a simple statistical control for county population to the original analysis” that “causes the estimated effect of Trump rallies on reported hate incidents to become statistically indistinguishable from zero.”
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